Learn why optimal stopping is the key to making the right choice
Every day, administrative professionals are faced with countless decisions—whether it’s hiring a candidate, choosing a supplier, or picking the best venue for an event. The challenge? Making the “right” choice can feel impossible when options are numerous and there’s pressure to make a fast decision.
This is where a concept from mathematics, called The Secretary Problem, offers a unique perspective. The name alone makes it sound like it was made just for administrative professionals like you! It’s a classic mathematical problem that’s been used to guide strategic decisions across various fields. Let’s explore what the Secretary Problem is, how it applies to the choices you make, and why it can help you feel more confident in making well-timed decisions.
What is the Secretary Problem?
The Secretary Problem (sometimes called the “Optimal Stopping Problem”) describes a mathematical approach to selecting the best option from a sequence of choices—when you only get one chance to make that choice. Originally, this problem was framed around hiring a secretary: imagine you have a fixed number of candidates for the position. You have to evaluate each one in order, deciding whether to accept or reject them as you go. But here’s the catch: once you pass on a candidate, you can’t go back.
The goal is to figure out a strategy for identifying the best candidate without knowing who the remaining candidates are or how good they might be. Mathematicians studying the problem determined a clever way to maximize your chances of choosing the best candidate without looking at all of them.
How Does the Solution Work? The 37% Rule
The general solution to the Secretary Problem suggests that you should spend approximately 37% of your time (or the total number of choices) just evaluating options, without committing to any one choice. During this phase, you observe and set a benchmark based on the options you’ve seen. After reaching this 37% mark, you then select the first candidate that exceeds the benchmark set in the initial evaluation phase.
For instance, if you have ten candidates to interview, you’d evaluate the first four without making any offers. From candidate number five onward, you’d make an offer to the first one that surpasses those initial four in quality.
Why the Secretary Problem Matters for Admin Professionals
Understanding the Secretary Problem can help you in situations where:
- You have limited time and resources (e.g., reviewing a long list of suppliers or vendors).
- You need to make a choice without revisiting past options (e.g., deciding on a candidate for a temporary position).
- There’s pressure to choose the best option (e.g., selecting a venue for a VIP event).
Let’s look at how applying this strategy can help in practical ways.
Applications of the Secretary Problem in Admin Work
1. Selecting Candidates for Open Positions
When you’re assisting in the hiring process, The Secretary Problem can be a helpful framework. By evaluating candidates without committing in the initial stages, you can develop a sense of the “standard” before you make a hiring recommendation. This can help you feel more confident that the candidate you recommend later on is genuinely one of the best in the pool.
2. Choosing Vendors or Suppliers
From catering to office supplies, finding the right vendor can be time-consuming. Following the 37% rule, you could spend the initial 37% of your review time just comparing and taking notes. Then, commit to the first vendor who outshines the ones reviewed earlier, confident that you’ve sampled enough of the market to make a smart decision.
3. Making Decisions with Limited Information
When comparing venues, partners, or project timelines, decisions often need to be made with limited information. Applying the Secretary Problem can reduce decision fatigue and help you avoid second-guessing your choices. It offers a rational stopping point, so you don’t feel the need to endlessly search for “something better.”
Key Takeaways
- The Secretary Problem can help admin professionals approach choices strategically, ensuring they don’t rush to choose or endlessly search for the “perfect” option.
- Using the 37% rule as a guide can reduce decision fatigue, giving you a structured way to determine when you’ve seen enough options.
- Knowing when to stop (and that it’s mathematically backed) provides peace of mind when selecting the right candidate, vendor, or venue.
Whether you’re recruiting for a role, booking a supplier, or managing resources, understanding The Secretary Problem can be your secret weapon for making smarter, faster, and more satisfying decisions.
The next time you’re weighing a tough choice, remember The Secretary Problem and the 37% rule. It’s more than just math—it’s a tool that’s uniquely relevant to the decision-making challenges you face as an administrative professional.
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Recommended Reading
If you’re interested in learning more about practical algorithms that can simplify decision-making in work and life, I highly recommend Algorithms to Live By by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths. This book dives into powerful strategies like the Secretary Problem and many others, offering insights into how computer science principles can help us navigate everyday choices.